Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
